Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $9.69 - $13.34 | $11.53 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.52 - $19.30 | $18.39 |
| Blended Fair Value | $14.96 | |
| Current Price | $16.50 | |
| Upside | -9.34% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -21.70% | -3.97% | 0.34 | 0.69 | 1.61 | 2.30 | 2.29 | 1.17 | 1.12 | 1.08 | 3.68 | 1.54 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -50.36% | -56.92% | -30.11% | 0.22% | 96.54% | 4.52% | 3.76% | -70.78% | 138.91% | 199.15% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.08% | 5.38% | 15.50% | 9.13% | 8.22% | 4.09% | 4.32% | 4.45% | 15.21% | 6.37% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 35.40 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 6.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 28.60 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 7.08 | 4.43 | 2.66 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 28.60 | 28.60 | 28.60 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -7.08 | -4.43 | -2.66 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 21.52 | 24.18 | 25.95 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.80 | 19.80 | 19.80 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.09 | 1.22 | 1.31 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.09 | 1.22 | 1.31 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.43 | 1.56 | 1.65 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.94% | -3.94% | -2.94% |
| Fair Value | $9.69 | $11.53 | $13.34 |
| Upside / Downside | -41.28% | -30.13% | -19.16% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 35.40 | 34.01 | 32.67 | 31.38 | 30.15 | 28.96 | 29.83 |
| Payout Ratio | 19.21% | 33.37% | 47.53% | 61.68% | 75.84% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 6.80 | 11.35 | 15.53 | 19.36 | 22.86 | 26.06 | 27.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -4.94% | -3.94% | -2.94% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 10.29 | 10.40 | 10.51 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 12.77 | 13.04 | 13.32 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 14.45 | 14.91 | 15.38 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 15.48 | 16.14 | 16.82 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 16.00 | 16.86 | 17.76 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 277.83 | 292.75 | 308.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 346.82 | 364.10 | 382.09 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 19.80 | 19.80 | 19.80 |
| Fair Value | $17.52 | $18.39 | $19.30 |
| Upside / Downside | 6.16% | 11.45% | 16.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |