Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Burford Capital Limited (BUR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.47 - $76.34$25.46
Multi-Stage$9.28 - $10.15$9.71
Blended Fair Value$17.59
Current Price$14.26
Upside23.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.78%6.72%0.120.120.120.180.000.130.110.090.080.07
YoY Growth---0.63%-0.60%-32.61%0.00%-100.00%15.64%23.85%16.33%9.88%8.89%
Dividend Yield--0.96%0.79%1.53%1.75%0.00%1.36%0.54%0.57%1.19%2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)40.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)45.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.2010.756.45
Cash Retained (M)45.0545.0545.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.20-10.75-6.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.8634.3138.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Fair Value$13.47$25.46$76.34
Upside / Downside-5.54%78.57%435.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.9990.9196.11101.61107.42113.57116.98
Payout Ratio47.60%56.08%64.56%73.04%81.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)40.9350.9862.0574.2287.57102.21108.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate4.72%5.72%6.72%
Year 1 PV (M)47.1447.5948.04
Year 2 PV (M)53.0554.0755.10
Year 3 PV (M)58.6760.3762.10
Year 4 PV (M)64.0166.4969.04
Year 5 PV (M)69.0872.4575.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,771.971,858.211,947.77
Equity Value (M)2,063.932,159.172,257.98
Shares Outstanding (M)222.40222.40222.40
Fair Value$9.28$9.71$10.15
Upside / Downside-34.92%-31.92%-28.80%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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