Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Blackrock Municipal 2030 Target Term Trust (BTT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Asset ManagementSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.58 - $11.88$10.24
Multi-Stage$22.67 - $24.98$23.80
Blended Fair Value$17.02
Current Price$22.16
Upside-23.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-5.79%-5.32%0.600.560.830.820.820.820.820.941.041.05
YoY Growth--7.62%-32.29%1.84%0.00%0.00%0.00%-13.13%-10.21%-0.15%0.15%
Dividend Yield--2.73%2.66%3.95%3.45%3.10%3.29%3.47%4.38%4.51%4.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2212.647.58
Cash Retained (M)25.5225.5225.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.22-12.64-7.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.3012.8817.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.7764.7764.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.200.28
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.200.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.251.371.44
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.48%-5.48%-4.48%
Fair Value$8.58$10.24$11.88
Upside / Downside-61.26%-53.78%-46.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.1095.5690.3385.3880.7076.2878.57
Payout Ratio74.76%77.81%80.86%83.90%86.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.5974.3673.0471.6470.1768.6572.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate-6.48%-5.48%-4.48%
Year 1 PV (M)68.6869.4170.14
Year 2 PV (M)62.3063.6465.00
Year 3 PV (M)56.4458.2760.14
Year 4 PV (M)51.0653.2855.57
Year 5 PV (M)46.1448.6651.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,183.541,248.191,315.62
Equity Value (M)1,468.161,541.451,617.77
Shares Outstanding (M)64.7764.7764.77
Fair Value$22.67$23.80$24.98
Upside / Downside2.29%7.39%12.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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