Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $17.44 - $25.11 | $21.18 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.80 - $32.64 | $31.19 |
| Blended Fair Value | $26.19 | |
| Current Price | $11.35 | |
| Upside | 130.73% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.44% | -5.77% | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.85 | 1.03 | 2.60 | 1.23 | 1.36 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.04% | -1.89% | -0.62% | -1.49% | -3.13% | -17.31% | -60.34% | 111.91% | -9.77% | -5.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 7.35% | 7.99% | 8.45% | 6.67% | 7.56% | 7.75% | 10.99% | 20.36% | 10.59% | 10.64% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 147.12 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 98.97 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 48.14 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 29.42 | 18.39 | 11.03 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 48.14 | 48.14 | 48.14 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -29.42 | -18.39 | -11.03 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 18.72 | 29.75 | 37.11 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.58 | 59.58 | 59.58 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.66 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.31 | 0.50 | 0.62 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.98 | 2.16 | 2.28 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Fair Value | $17.44 | $21.18 | $25.11 |
| Upside / Downside | 53.69% | 86.63% | 121.20% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 147.12 | 145.64 | 144.19 | 142.75 | 141.32 | 139.91 | 144.10 |
| Payout Ratio | 67.28% | 71.82% | 76.37% | 80.91% | 85.46% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 98.97 | 104.60 | 110.11 | 115.50 | 120.76 | 125.91 | 133.29 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -2.00% | -1.00% | 0.00% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94.91 | 95.88 | 96.85 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 90.65 | 92.51 | 94.39 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 86.28 | 88.94 | 91.67 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 81.85 | 85.25 | 88.74 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 77.44 | 81.47 | 85.67 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 1,344.30 | 1,414.30 | 1,487.19 |
| Equity Value (M) | 1,775.43 | 1,858.35 | 1,944.50 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 59.58 | 59.58 | 59.58 |
| Fair Value | $29.80 | $31.19 | $32.64 |
| Upside / Downside | 162.56% | 174.82% | 187.56% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |