Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Belden Inc. (BDC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.13 - $56.05$47.42
Multi-Stage$55.15 - $60.62$57.83
Blended Fair Value$52.63
Current Price$120.60
Upside-56.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.96%-0.60%0.200.210.220.220.220.851.061.070.400.21
YoY Growth---3.57%-5.04%-1.18%0.30%-73.78%-20.22%-0.48%169.77%91.53%-3.49%
Dividend Yield--0.20%0.23%0.25%0.41%0.48%2.32%1.95%1.62%0.59%0.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)228.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)219.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.6028.5017.10
Cash Retained (M)219.98219.98219.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.60-28.50-17.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)174.37191.47202.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)40.5740.5740.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.304.725.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.304.725.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.504.925.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-1.36%-0.36%0.64%
Fair Value$39.13$47.42$56.05
Upside / Downside-67.55%-60.68%-53.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)228.02227.20226.39225.58224.78223.97230.69
Payout Ratio3.53%20.82%38.12%55.41%72.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8.0447.3186.29125.00163.42201.58213.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-1.36%-0.36%0.64%
Year 1 PV (M)42.5843.0143.45
Year 2 PV (M)69.9271.3472.78
Year 3 PV (M)91.1793.9796.83
Year 4 PV (M)107.30111.71116.27
Year 5 PV (M)119.13125.29131.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,807.541,901.041,998.37
Equity Value (M)2,237.642,346.382,459.40
Shares Outstanding (M)40.5740.5740.57
Fair Value$55.15$57.83$60.62
Upside / Downside-54.27%-52.04%-49.73%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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