Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Boise Cascade Company (BCC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$93.78 - $196.71$132.61
Multi-Stage$68.77 - $75.11$71.88
Blended Fair Value$102.24
Current Price$86.82
Upside17.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.50%0.00%6.019.104.195.612.081.421.330.070.000.00
YoY Growth---33.96%117.15%-25.33%169.82%46.78%6.60%1,773.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.13%5.95%6.63%8.08%3.48%5.96%4.97%0.18%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)193.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.6024.1314.48
Cash Retained (M)158.09158.09158.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.60-24.13-14.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.49133.97143.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.0638.0638.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.143.523.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.143.523.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.064.444.69
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$93.78$132.61$196.71
Upside / Downside8.02%52.74%126.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)193.00205.55218.91233.14248.29264.43272.36
Payout Ratio18.09%32.47%46.85%61.24%75.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.9166.74102.56142.76187.75237.99251.94

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)60.0760.6461.21
Year 2 PV (M)83.0884.6786.26
Year 3 PV (M)104.09107.07110.12
Year 4 PV (M)123.20127.94132.82
Year 5 PV (M)140.56147.35154.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,106.642,208.392,314.04
Equity Value (M)2,617.652,736.072,858.85
Shares Outstanding (M)38.0638.0638.06
Fair Value$68.77$71.88$75.11
Upside / Downside-20.79%-17.21%-13.49%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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