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Definitive Analysis

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AXIS Capital Holdings Limited (AXS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - Property & CasualtySector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$155.89 - $266.63$203.85
Multi-Stage$224.58 - $246.70$235.43
Blended Fair Value$219.64
Current Price$95.80
Upside129.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.04%2.58%1.861.891.831.791.741.681.641.661.621.45
YoY Growth---1.31%2.97%2.57%2.83%3.19%2.78%-1.13%2.05%11.52%0.88%
Dividend Yield--1.86%2.90%3.36%2.95%3.50%4.35%2.96%2.88%2.42%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,012.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)145.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)867.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.59126.6275.97
Cash Retained (M)867.03867.03867.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.59-126.62-75.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)664.44740.41791.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)81.5581.5581.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.159.089.70
LTM Dividend per Share1.791.791.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.159.089.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.9410.8711.49
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate1.03%2.03%3.03%
Fair Value$155.89$203.85$266.63
Upside / Downside62.72%112.79%178.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,012.931,033.441,054.371,075.731,097.521,119.751,153.34
Payout Ratio14.40%29.52%44.64%59.76%74.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)145.90305.10470.69642.87821.831,007.771,066.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate1.03%2.03%3.03%
Year 1 PV (M)281.13283.91286.69
Year 2 PV (M)399.62407.57415.60
Year 3 PV (M)502.91517.99533.38
Year 4 PV (M)592.39616.19640.71
Year 5 PV (M)669.33703.12738.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,870.0016,671.1517,504.34
Equity Value (M)18,315.3919,199.9520,118.98
Shares Outstanding (M)81.5581.5581.55
Fair Value$224.58$235.43$246.70
Upside / Downside134.43%145.75%157.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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