Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $12.20 - $18.37 | $15.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $18.74 - $20.48 | $19.59 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17.36 | |
| Current Price | $28.44 | |
| Upside | -38.97% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.08% | 1.87% | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -0.08% | 1.51% | 1.03% | 1.21% | 1.76% | 2.20% | 4.36% | 2.23% | 2.28% | 2.30% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.00% | 5.69% | 4.70% | 3.17% | 2.71% | 2.44% | 2.63% | 2.46% | 2.84% | 3.25% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4.92 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3.77 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 1.15 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 0.98 | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 1.15 | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -0.98 | -0.62 | -0.37 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 0.17 | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.49 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.13 | 1.23 | 1.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.13% | 0.87% | 1.87% |
| Fair Value | $12.20 | $15.12 | $18.37 |
| Upside / Downside | -57.10% | -46.84% | -35.39% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4.92 | 4.97 | 5.01 | 5.05 | 5.10 | 5.14 | 5.30 |
| Payout Ratio | 76.62% | 79.30% | 81.97% | 84.65% | 87.32% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3.77 | 3.94 | 4.11 | 4.28 | 4.45 | 4.63 | 4.90 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.13% | 0.87% | 1.87% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3.57 | 3.61 | 3.65 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3.38 | 3.45 | 3.52 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3.20 | 3.29 | 3.39 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3.02 | 3.14 | 3.27 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 2.85 | 2.99 | 3.15 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 49.45 | 51.98 | 54.60 |
| Equity Value (M) | 65.47 | 68.47 | 71.58 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.49 |
| Fair Value | $18.74 | $19.59 | $20.48 |
| Upside / Downside | -34.12% | -31.11% | -27.98% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |