Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (ARCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$79.26 - $231.62$217.06
Multi-Stage$31.47 - $34.45$32.93
Blended Fair Value$125.00
Current Price$7.89
Upside1,484.25%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.65%0.10%0.240.190.150.000.050.110.100.000.000.06
YoY Growth--26.32%26.70%150,314.29%-99.79%-54.43%7.11%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-75.00%
Dividend Yield--2.98%1.70%1.94%0.00%0.97%3.24%1.40%0.00%0.00%1.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)194.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0730.6718.40
Cash Retained (M)194.79194.79194.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.07-30.67-18.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)145.72164.12176.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)210.66210.66210.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.780.84
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.780.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.931.021.08
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$79.26$217.06$231.62
Upside / Downside904.61%2,651.11%2,835.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.35261.30278.28296.37315.63336.15346.24
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.36%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.5690.11134.59184.47240.27302.54320.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)83.6384.4285.21
Year 2 PV (M)115.92118.13120.36
Year 3 PV (M)147.45151.68156.00
Year 4 PV (M)178.23185.09192.14
Year 5 PV (M)208.28218.34228.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,895.266,180.016,475.65
Equity Value (M)6,628.786,937.677,258.14
Shares Outstanding (M)210.66210.66210.66
Fair Value$31.47$32.93$34.45
Upside / Downside298.81%317.40%336.68%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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