Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aon plc (AON)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - BrokersSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,115.16 - $2,492.09$2,335.42
Multi-Stage$515.78 - $565.38$540.12
Blended Fair Value$1,437.77
Current Price$356.58
Upside303.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.51%7.49%2.582.252.132.051.891.881.761.671.591.48
YoY Growth--14.93%5.62%3.58%8.50%0.49%7.33%4.95%5.51%6.81%18.32%
Dividend Yield--0.65%0.68%0.68%0.63%0.82%1.14%1.01%1.19%1.34%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,730.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)614.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,116.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)546.00341.25204.75
Cash Retained (M)2,116.002,116.002,116.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-546.00-341.25-204.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,570.001,774.751,911.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)217.55217.55217.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.228.168.79
LTM Dividend per Share2.822.822.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.228.168.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0410.9811.61
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$2,115.16$2,335.42$2,492.09
Upside / Downside493.18%554.95%598.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,730.002,903.263,087.513,283.463,491.843,713.453,824.86
Payout Ratio22.49%35.99%49.49%63.00%76.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)614.001,044.961,528.152,068.462,671.203,342.113,537.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.49%5.49%5.49%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)981.24990.56999.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,347.471,373.171,399.12
Year 3 PV (M)1,712.681,761.921,812.09
Year 4 PV (M)2,076.892,156.882,239.15
Year 5 PV (M)2,440.082,558.112,680.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)103,648.55108,662.25113,868.11
Equity Value (M)112,206.91117,502.89122,999.02
Shares Outstanding (M)217.55217.55217.55
Fair Value$515.78$540.12$565.38
Upside / Downside44.65%51.47%58.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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