Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $26.11 - $36.52 | $31.29 |
| Multi-Stage | $46.64 - $51.23 | $48.89 |
| Blended Fair Value | $40.09 | |
| Current Price | $31.78 | |
| Upside | 26.16% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 1.58% | 6.42% | 1.80 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 2.07 | 1.66 | 1.67 | 1.59 | 1.47 | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -4.11% | 2.95% | -11.60% | 24.72% | -0.64% | 5.18% | 8.17% | 10.82% | 22.70% | 11.35% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.68% | 5.26% | 3.42% | 4.84% | 4.37% | 4.40% | 4.18% | 3.86% | 3.49% | 2.84% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 639.95 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 264.12 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 375.83 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 127.99 | 79.99 | 48.00 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 375.83 | 375.83 | 375.83 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -127.99 | -79.99 | -48.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 247.84 | 295.83 | 327.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 147.48 | 147.48 | 147.48 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.68 | 2.01 | 2.22 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.79 | 1.79 | 1.79 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.68 | 2.01 | 2.22 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.47 | 3.80 | 4.01 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.71% | -2.71% | -1.71% |
| Fair Value | $26.11 | $31.29 | $36.52 |
| Upside / Downside | -17.85% | -1.53% | 14.90% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 639.95 | 622.63 | 605.78 | 589.38 | 573.43 | 557.91 | 574.65 |
| Payout Ratio | 41.27% | 51.02% | 60.76% | 70.51% | 80.25% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 264.12 | 317.65 | 368.09 | 415.57 | 460.21 | 502.12 | 531.55 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -3.71% | -2.71% | -1.71% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 288.17 | 291.16 | 294.16 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 302.94 | 309.26 | 315.65 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 310.26 | 320.03 | 330.00 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 311.70 | 324.85 | 338.41 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 308.53 | 324.88 | 341.92 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 5,356.00 | 5,639.94 | 5,935.80 |
| Equity Value (M) | 6,877.60 | 7,210.13 | 7,555.95 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 147.48 | 147.48 | 147.48 |
| Fair Value | $46.64 | $48.89 | $51.23 |
| Upside / Downside | 46.74% | 53.84% | 61.22% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |