Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Air Arabia PJSC (AIRARABIA.AE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.52 - $65.61$25.14
Multi-Stage$8.23 - $9.00$8.61
Blended Fair Value$16.87
Current Price$3.75
Upside349.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%10.68%0.200.150.080.000.090.000.100.070.090.09
YoY Growth--33.33%76.47%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%42.86%-22.22%0.00%24.14%
Dividend Yield--6.45%5.36%4.01%0.00%7.14%0.00%10.64%6.03%8.49%7.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,548.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,166.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)381.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)309.66193.54116.12
Cash Retained (M)381.62381.62381.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-309.66-193.54-116.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.96188.08265.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,666.704,666.704,666.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Fair Value$12.52$25.14$65.61
Upside / Downside233.99%570.39%1,649.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,548.291,639.451,735.971,838.181,946.412,061.002,122.83
Payout Ratio75.35%78.28%81.21%84.14%87.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,166.681,283.391,409.811,546.661,694.751,854.901,963.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate4.89%5.89%6.89%
Year 1 PV (M)1,186.881,198.201,209.51
Year 2 PV (M)1,205.751,228.851,252.17
Year 3 PV (M)1,223.321,258.641,294.64
Year 4 PV (M)1,239.641,287.591,336.93
Year 5 PV (M)1,254.761,315.721,379.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,315.8933,886.0535,516.65
Equity Value (M)38,426.2240,175.0441,988.93
Shares Outstanding (M)4,666.704,666.704,666.70
Fair Value$8.23$8.61$9.00
Upside / Downside119.58%129.57%139.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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