Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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American Equity Investment Life Holding Company (AEL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.62 - $66.28$55.63
Multi-Stage$74.21 - $81.71$77.88
Blended Fair Value$66.76
Current Price$56.47
Upside18.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.540.920.930.780.340.310.290.260.22
YoY Growth---100.00%-40.88%-1.66%20.44%128.44%8.07%9.15%9.65%18.10%19.04%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.97%2.52%2.34%2.46%1.81%1.15%0.98%1.11%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)497.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)486.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)99.5762.2337.34
Cash Retained (M)486.92486.92486.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-99.57-62.23-37.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)387.35424.69449.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.825.285.59
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.955.425.73
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$45.62$55.63$66.28
Upside / Downside-19.22%-1.49%17.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)497.84492.86487.93483.05478.22473.44487.65
Payout Ratio2.19%19.75%37.32%54.88%72.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10.9297.36182.08265.09346.42426.10451.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.64%8.64%8.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.7189.6290.52
Year 2 PV (M)151.16154.26157.39
Year 3 PV (M)200.51206.71213.04
Year 4 PV (M)238.75248.64258.84
Year 5 PV (M)267.56281.50296.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,018.315,279.625,551.71
Equity Value (M)5,965.006,260.356,567.51
Shares Outstanding (M)80.3880.3880.38
Fair Value$74.21$77.88$81.71
Upside / Downside31.41%37.92%44.69%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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