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Definitive Analysis

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Arcosa, Inc. (ACA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.87 - $29.86$25.27
Multi-Stage$31.91 - $35.09$33.47
Blended Fair Value$29.37
Current Price$93.71
Upside-68.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.41%0.00%0.200.200.200.200.200.200.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---1.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%-1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.24%0.32%0.35%0.31%0.51%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)138.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7218.5811.15
Cash Retained (M)138.70138.70138.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.72-18.58-11.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)108.98120.13127.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48.9848.9848.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.232.452.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.232.452.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.432.652.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$20.87$25.27$29.86
Upside / Downside-77.73%-73.03%-68.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.60147.11145.64144.19142.74141.32145.56
Payout Ratio6.66%23.33%40.00%56.66%73.33%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.9034.3258.2581.70104.68127.19134.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.40%9.40%9.40%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.0631.3731.69
Year 2 PV (M)47.6948.6749.66
Year 3 PV (M)60.5362.4064.31
Year 4 PV (M)70.1773.0876.08
Year 5 PV (M)77.1481.1685.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,276.021,342.471,411.65
Equity Value (M)1,562.611,639.151,718.73
Shares Outstanding (M)48.9848.9848.98
Fair Value$31.91$33.47$35.09
Upside / Downside-65.95%-64.28%-62.55%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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