Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Macauto Industrial Co., Ltd. (9951.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.95 - $35.17$30.01
Multi-Stage$71.81 - $79.15$75.41
Blended Fair Value$52.71
Current Price$52.90
Upside-0.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.14%-3.78%3.383.283.284.673.484.185.275.775.475.37
YoY Growth--3.03%0.00%-29.79%34.29%-16.67%-20.75%-8.62%5.45%1.85%8.00%
Dividend Yield--6.29%4.50%4.65%6.36%3.48%6.84%5.82%4.12%3.16%3.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)307.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)254.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.4438.4023.04
Cash Retained (M)52.5252.5252.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.44-38.40-23.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)-8.9214.1229.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.190.39
LTM Dividend per Share3.383.383.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.120.190.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.263.573.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-5.78%-4.78%-3.78%
Fair Value$24.95$30.01$35.17
Upside / Downside-52.84%-43.26%-33.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)307.18292.48278.49265.17252.49240.41247.62
Payout Ratio82.90%84.32%85.74%87.16%88.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)254.66246.63238.79231.13223.66216.37229.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-5.78%-4.78%-3.78%
Year 1 PV (M)229.06231.49233.92
Year 2 PV (M)205.98210.37214.81
Year 3 PV (M)185.17191.13197.21
Year 4 PV (M)166.42173.59181.00
Year 5 PV (M)149.53157.63166.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,471.864,714.274,967.08
Equity Value (M)5,408.005,678.485,960.11
Shares Outstanding (M)75.3175.3175.31
Fair Value$71.81$75.41$79.15
Upside / Downside35.75%42.54%49.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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