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Sama Healthy Water Factory Co. (9612.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.37 - $3.64$2.96
Multi-Stage$5.20 - $5.72$5.46
Blended Fair Value$4.21
Current Price$2.70
Upside55.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022
DPS0.00%0.00%0.080.210.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---64.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.23%6.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.601.620.97
Cash Retained (M)7.877.877.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.60-1.62-0.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.276.246.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)50.0050.0050.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.37$2.96$3.64
Upside / Downside-12.32%9.62%34.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.9912.8612.7312.6112.4812.3612.73
Payout Ratio39.45%49.56%59.67%69.78%79.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.136.377.608.809.9711.1211.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)5.925.986.04
Year 2 PV (M)6.556.696.82
Year 3 PV (M)7.047.267.48
Year 4 PV (M)7.417.728.04
Year 5 PV (M)7.688.088.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)225.41237.15249.37
Equity Value (M)260.01272.87286.24
Shares Outstanding (M)50.0050.0050.00
Fair Value$5.20$5.46$5.72
Upside / Downside92.60%102.13%112.03%

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