Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Abdulaziz and Mansour Ibrahim Albabtin Co. (9549.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.66 - $20.35$16.84
Multi-Stage$25.72 - $28.30$26.98
Blended Fair Value$21.91
Current Price$35.50
Upside-38.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.500.500.991.070.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-50.00%-6.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.13%2.12%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.140.720.43
Cash Retained (M)4.024.024.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.14-0.72-0.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.883.313.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.423.423.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.341.471.55
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.66$16.84$20.35
Upside / Downside-61.53%-52.56%-42.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5.725.675.615.555.505.445.61
Payout Ratio29.71%41.76%53.82%65.88%77.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1.702.373.023.664.284.905.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.61%7.61%7.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.182.202.22
Year 2 PV (M)2.552.612.66
Year 3 PV (M)2.852.943.03
Year 4 PV (M)3.073.193.33
Year 5 PV (M)3.233.393.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)74.0477.9081.91
Equity Value (M)87.9292.2396.71
Shares Outstanding (M)3.423.423.42
Fair Value$25.72$26.98$28.30
Upside / Downside-27.54%-23.99%-20.29%

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