Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Izumi Co., Ltd. (8273.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,402.48 - $2,115.86$1,739.16
Multi-Stage$3,676.04 - $4,047.70$3,858.19
Blended Fair Value$2,798.68
Current Price$3,231.00
Upside-13.38%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.35%6.90%90.2088.1586.1286.2280.3080.3080.3068.2666.2559.23
YoY Growth--2.32%2.36%-0.11%7.36%0.00%0.00%17.65%3.02%11.85%27.93%
Dividend Yield--2.75%2.61%2.69%3.12%1.96%2.41%1.73%1.01%1.10%1.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,847.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,049.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,798.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,369.401,480.88888.53
Cash Retained (M)3,798.003,798.003,798.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,369.40-1,480.88-888.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,428.602,317.132,909.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.3871.3871.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share20.0132.4640.76
LTM Dividend per Share112.77112.77112.77
(+) Excess Retained per Share20.0132.4640.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend132.78145.23153.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Fair Value$1,402.48$1,739.16$2,115.86
Upside / Downside-56.59%-46.17%-34.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,847.0011,609.7011,377.1511,149.2510,925.9310,707.0711,028.28
Payout Ratio67.94%72.35%76.76%81.18%85.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,049.008,399.968,733.649,050.579,351.319,636.3610,201.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate-3.00%-2.00%-1.00%
Year 1 PV (M)7,830.327,911.057,991.78
Year 2 PV (M)7,589.267,746.557,905.46
Year 3 PV (M)7,331.337,560.427,794.24
Year 4 PV (M)7,061.247,356.977,661.89
Year 5 PV (M)6,783.047,139.977,511.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)225,794.07237,675.79250,052.51
Equity Value (M)262,389.26275,390.75288,917.66
Shares Outstanding (M)71.3871.3871.38
Fair Value$3,676.04$3,858.19$4,047.70
Upside / Downside13.77%19.41%25.28%

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