Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Axial Retailing Inc. (8255.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,671.76 - $19,822.54$7,196.66
Multi-Stage$3,022.77 - $3,314.90$3,166.10
Blended Fair Value$5,181.38
Current Price$1,173.00
Upside341.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.00%8.35%24.9621.6920.5220.5319.7618.6518.2017.6816.4010.42
YoY Growth--15.09%5.66%-0.05%3.90%5.99%2.45%2.97%7.76%57.45%-6.89%
Dividend Yield--2.22%2.15%2.27%2.63%2.11%1.73%1.94%1.68%1.53%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,062.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,426.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,636.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,812.401,132.75679.65
Cash Retained (M)6,636.006,636.006,636.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,812.40-1,132.75-679.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,823.605,503.255,956.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)89.5589.5589.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share53.8661.4566.51
LTM Dividend per Share27.0927.0927.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share53.8661.4566.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend80.9588.5493.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$3,671.76$7,196.66$19,822.54
Upside / Downside213.02%513.53%1,589.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,062.009,505.089,969.8310,457.3010,968.6111,504.9211,850.07
Payout Ratio26.77%39.42%52.06%64.71%77.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,426.003,746.615,190.566,766.768,484.6810,354.4310,961.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.18%6.18%6.18%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)3,494.913,528.553,562.19
Year 2 PV (M)4,516.574,603.944,692.14
Year 3 PV (M)5,492.535,652.675,815.89
Year 4 PV (M)6,424.286,675.236,933.45
Year 5 PV (M)7,313.287,672.098,044.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)243,461.99255,407.10267,816.54
Equity Value (M)270,703.56283,539.58296,865.07
Shares Outstanding (M)89.5589.5589.55
Fair Value$3,022.77$3,166.10$3,314.90
Upside / Downside157.70%169.91%182.60%

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