Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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San-Ai Obbli Co., Ltd. (8097.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,364.54 - $2,303.23$1,774.75
Multi-Stage$2,680.79 - $2,941.42$2,808.61
Blended Fair Value$2,291.68
Current Price$1,815.00
Upside26.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS26.72%19.60%101.7269.7749.2130.7831.1331.1331.3626.9722.0023.05
YoY Growth--45.78%41.79%59.87%-1.13%0.00%-0.71%16.25%22.61%-4.56%35.65%
Dividend Yield--5.60%3.29%3.24%3.20%2.42%3.20%2.90%1.97%1.92%3.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,116.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,282.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)834.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,423.20889.50533.70
Cash Retained (M)834.00834.00834.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,423.20-889.50-533.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)-589.20-55.50300.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
LTM Dividend per Share100.14100.14100.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share-9.39-0.884.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend90.7599.26104.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Fair Value$1,364.54$1,774.75$2,303.23
Upside / Downside-24.82%-2.22%26.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,116.007,174.677,233.827,293.467,353.597,414.227,636.64
Payout Ratio88.28%88.62%88.97%89.31%89.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,282.006,358.476,435.786,513.936,592.936,672.797,063.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-0.18%0.82%1.82%
Year 1 PV (M)5,913.225,972.466,031.69
Year 2 PV (M)5,566.015,678.085,791.28
Year 3 PV (M)5,239.115,398.145,560.36
Year 4 PV (M)4,931.335,131.925,338.57
Year 5 PV (M)4,641.564,878.765,125.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)141,878.48149,128.69156,672.31
Equity Value (M)168,169.71176,188.04184,519.75
Shares Outstanding (M)62.7362.7362.73
Fair Value$2,680.79$2,808.61$2,941.42
Upside / Downside47.70%54.74%62.06%

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