Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Toyota Tsusho Corporation (8015.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,073.30 - $6,847.65$5,288.48
Multi-Stage$3,324.43 - $3,621.50$3,470.32
Blended Fair Value$4,379.40
Current Price$4,102.00
Upside6.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.47%17.80%77.0462.0344.0233.3536.6933.0228.0220.6819.6718.32
YoY Growth--24.20%40.92%32.00%-9.10%11.10%17.86%35.49%5.11%7.37%22.38%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.95%1.85%2.26%2.10%3.63%2.49%1.67%1.75%2.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)340,606.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)98,584.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)242,022.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68,121.2042,575.7525,545.45
Cash Retained (M)242,022.00242,022.00242,022.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-68,121.20-42,575.75-25,545.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)173,900.80199,446.25216,476.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,055.691,055.691,055.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share164.73188.93205.06
LTM Dividend per Share93.3893.3893.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share164.73188.93205.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend258.11282.31298.44
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,073.30$5,288.48$6,847.65
Upside / Downside-0.70%28.92%66.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)340,606.00362,745.39386,323.84411,434.89438,178.16466,659.74480,659.53
Payout Ratio28.94%41.15%53.37%65.58%77.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)98,584.00149,287.74206,166.44269,808.64340,853.27419,993.76444,610.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.19%12.19%12.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)131,823.10133,072.60134,322.11
Year 2 PV (M)160,750.64163,812.49166,903.22
Year 3 PV (M)185,762.46191,095.04196,528.70
Year 4 PV (M)207,222.51215,191.71223,388.58
Year 5 PV (M)225,465.28236,355.34247,662.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,598,534.672,724,044.872,854,358.64
Equity Value (M)3,509,558.673,663,572.053,823,163.43
Shares Outstanding (M)1,055.691,055.691,055.69
Fair Value$3,324.43$3,470.32$3,621.50
Upside / Downside-18.96%-15.40%-11.71%

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