Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Cubic Sensor and Instrument Co., Ltd (688665.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.85 - $90.97$54.06
Multi-Stage$24.85 - $27.15$25.98
Blended Fair Value$40.02
Current Price$63.26
Upside-36.74%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS58.50%0.00%0.630.650.890.310.210.060.070.170.000.00
YoY Growth---2.69%-27.36%186.67%49.76%229.70%-8.85%-59.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.70%1.61%1.38%0.33%0.49%0.14%0.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)158.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)31.6919.8011.88
Cash Retained (M)120.44120.44120.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-31.69-19.80-11.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.76100.64108.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.9299.9299.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.891.011.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.891.011.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.85$54.06$90.97
Upside / Downside-43.34%-14.54%43.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)158.43168.73179.69191.37203.81217.06223.57
Payout Ratio23.98%37.18%50.39%63.59%76.80%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.9962.7390.54121.70156.52195.36206.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)56.8957.4357.97
Year 2 PV (M)74.4675.8877.31
Year 3 PV (M)90.7793.3796.03
Year 4 PV (M)105.87109.94114.13
Year 5 PV (M)119.83125.62131.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,035.142,133.432,235.49
Equity Value (M)2,482.952,595.672,712.56
Shares Outstanding (M)99.9299.9299.92
Fair Value$24.85$25.98$27.15
Upside / Downside-60.72%-58.94%-57.09%

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