Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Succeeder Technology Inc. (688338.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.17 - $24.03$17.67
Multi-Stage$12.57 - $13.73$13.14
Blended Fair Value$15.41
Current Price$26.52
Upside-41.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS95.76%0.00%0.260.200.190.310.110.010.040.180.030.00
YoY Growth--30.00%4.00%-37.50%172.16%1,150.00%-76.24%-79.05%482.37%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.06%0.80%0.52%1.02%0.32%0.01%0.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)93.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)34.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.7811.747.04
Cash Retained (M)59.5659.5659.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.78-11.74-7.04
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.7847.8252.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.91104.91104.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.390.460.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Fair Value$13.17$17.67$24.03
Upside / Downside-50.33%-33.36%-9.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)93.9098.51103.34108.41113.73119.31122.89
Payout Ratio36.57%47.25%57.94%68.63%79.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)34.3446.5559.8874.4090.20107.38113.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.56%9.56%9.56%
Growth Rate3.91%4.91%5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)42.0842.4942.89
Year 2 PV (M)48.9449.8950.84
Year 3 PV (M)54.9856.5858.21
Year 4 PV (M)60.2662.6265.04
Year 5 PV (M)64.8668.0471.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,047.311,098.691,152.06
Equity Value (M)1,318.431,378.301,440.39
Shares Outstanding (M)104.91104.91104.91
Fair Value$12.57$13.14$13.73
Upside / Downside-52.61%-50.46%-48.23%

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