Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ULVAC, Inc. (6728.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11,615.73 - $58,491.80$24,110.35
Multi-Stage$8,011.92 - $8,768.39$8,383.18
Blended Fair Value$16,246.76
Current Price$6,449.00
Upside151.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.54%21.07%144.20109.12124.1495.0980.09105.0695.0750.0229.999.97
YoY Growth--32.15%-12.10%30.55%18.73%-23.77%10.51%90.06%66.82%200.81%-53.24%
Dividend Yield--2.24%1.43%2.30%1.85%1.25%2.76%2.19%1.14%0.42%0.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,618.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,061.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,557.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,923.601,827.251,096.35
Cash Retained (M)6,557.006,557.006,557.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,923.60-1,827.25-1,096.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,633.404,729.755,460.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.2649.2649.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share73.7696.02110.86
LTM Dividend per Share163.65163.65163.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share73.7696.02110.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend237.41259.67274.51
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Fair Value$11,615.73$24,110.35$58,491.80
Upside / Downside80.12%273.86%806.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,618.0015,427.6116,282.0517,183.8318,135.5419,139.9619,714.16
Payout Ratio55.14%62.12%69.09%76.06%83.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,061.009,582.9311,248.7213,069.6315,057.7317,225.9718,235.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate4.54%5.54%6.54%
Year 1 PV (M)8,898.178,983.299,068.41
Year 2 PV (M)9,698.579,885.0110,073.22
Year 3 PV (M)10,463.3410,766.4911,075.44
Year 4 PV (M)11,193.5811,628.0712,075.08
Year 5 PV (M)11,890.3612,470.0613,072.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)342,502.04359,200.10376,543.16
Equity Value (M)394,646.06412,933.01431,907.46
Shares Outstanding (M)49.2649.2649.26
Fair Value$8,011.92$8,383.18$8,768.39
Upside / Downside24.24%29.99%35.97%

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