Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (603888.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.83 - $16.61$11.11
Multi-Stage$5.73 - $6.26$5.99
Blended Fair Value$8.55
Current Price$19.76
Upside-56.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.14%12.70%0.250.140.130.100.150.190.150.000.520.10
YoY Growth--70.37%14.72%27.34%-34.36%-21.37%24.00%0.00%-100.00%425.91%34.19%
Dividend Yield--1.40%0.77%0.57%0.74%1.11%1.13%0.79%0.00%4.05%1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)225.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.3135.1921.12
Cash Retained (M)225.70225.70225.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.31-35.19-21.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)169.39190.51204.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)674.64674.64674.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.83$11.11$16.61
Upside / Downside-60.38%-43.75%-15.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.55299.85319.34340.09362.20385.74397.32
Payout Ratio19.84%33.87%47.90%61.93%75.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.85101.55152.97210.64275.15347.17367.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)91.4692.3293.19
Year 2 PV (M)124.06126.42128.81
Year 3 PV (M)153.84158.26162.76
Year 4 PV (M)180.98187.94195.10
Year 5 PV (M)205.64215.57225.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,110.383,260.613,416.60
Equity Value (M)3,866.364,041.134,222.34
Shares Outstanding (M)674.64674.64674.64
Fair Value$5.73$5.99$6.26
Upside / Downside-71.00%-69.69%-68.33%

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