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Definitive Analysis

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Dazzle Fashion Co., Ltd (603587.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.47 - $6.64$5.50
Multi-Stage$11.84 - $13.03$12.42
Blended Fair Value$8.96
Current Price$12.35
Upside-27.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.28%-1.78%0.810.711.030.830.860.860.860.090.990.75
YoY Growth--13.56%-31.00%24.84%-4.14%0.00%0.00%894.86%-91.25%31.54%-22.22%
Dividend Yield--6.66%5.54%6.68%5.08%4.33%4.93%3.73%0.26%3.00%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)260.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)235.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)25.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52.1132.5719.54
Cash Retained (M)25.5025.5025.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-52.11-32.57-19.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.60-7.065.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.27464.27464.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.020.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.06-0.020.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.490.52
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Fair Value$4.47$5.50$6.64
Upside / Downside-63.85%-55.46%-46.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)260.53254.33248.28242.37236.60230.97237.90
Payout Ratio90.21%90.17%90.13%90.08%90.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)235.03229.33223.76218.34213.04207.87220.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-3.38%-2.38%-1.38%
Year 1 PV (M)213.46215.66217.87
Year 2 PV (M)193.86197.90201.97
Year 3 PV (M)176.07181.59187.23
Year 4 PV (M)159.91166.63173.57
Year 5 PV (M)145.23152.91160.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,610.204,853.765,107.51
Equity Value (M)5,498.735,768.466,049.05
Shares Outstanding (M)464.27464.27464.27
Fair Value$11.84$12.42$13.03
Upside / Downside-4.10%0.61%5.50%

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