Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Aiyingshi Co.,Ltd (603214.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.98 - $40.24$25.05
Multi-Stage$12.28 - $13.40$12.83
Blended Fair Value$18.94
Current Price$17.99
Upside5.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.57%21.05%0.510.370.290.390.390.280.210.250.120.12
YoY Growth--36.87%27.78%-25.10%0.09%37.90%37.03%-16.75%111.03%-2.19%58.72%
Dividend Yield--2.55%2.85%1.61%1.90%1.70%0.95%0.72%1.21%0.57%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)110.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)65.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.1713.868.31
Cash Retained (M)65.2565.2565.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.17-13.86-8.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.0851.4056.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.55138.55138.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.98$25.05$40.24
Upside / Downside-5.61%39.22%123.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)110.85118.06125.73133.90142.61151.88156.43
Payout Ratio41.13%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.6060.1076.2994.34114.41136.69144.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)54.3854.9055.41
Year 2 PV (M)62.4763.6664.86
Year 3 PV (M)69.8971.9073.94
Year 4 PV (M)76.7079.6582.68
Year 5 PV (M)82.9286.9291.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,355.211,420.671,488.63
Equity Value (M)1,701.571,777.691,856.61
Shares Outstanding (M)138.55138.55138.55
Fair Value$12.28$12.83$13.40
Upside / Downside-31.73%-28.68%-25.51%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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