Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Maysta Chemical Co., Ltd. (603041.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.43 - $7.44$4.91
Multi-Stage$2.66 - $2.89$2.77
Blended Fair Value$3.84
Current Price$12.30
Upside-68.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.27%0.88%0.210.140.110.190.130.080.090.120.120.09
YoY Growth--45.20%25.90%-40.27%48.79%68.21%-16.53%-25.64%3.79%31.26%-52.79%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.26%0.97%1.61%0.94%0.63%0.75%0.84%0.80%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)31.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.333.962.37
Cash Retained (M)9.369.369.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.33-3.96-2.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.025.406.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)178.31178.31178.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Fair Value$3.43$4.91$7.44
Upside / Downside-72.13%-60.10%-39.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)31.6633.7235.9138.2340.7143.3644.66
Payout Ratio70.45%74.36%78.27%82.18%86.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.3125.0728.1031.4235.0539.0241.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate5.49%6.49%7.49%
Year 1 PV (M)22.6122.8223.04
Year 2 PV (M)22.8523.2923.73
Year 3 PV (M)23.0423.7024.37
Year 4 PV (M)23.1724.0624.98
Year 5 PV (M)23.2624.3925.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)359.06376.41394.42
Equity Value (M)474.00494.67516.09
Shares Outstanding (M)178.31178.31178.31
Fair Value$2.66$2.77$2.89
Upside / Downside-78.39%-77.45%-76.47%

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