Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co., Ltd. (603035.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$84.35 - $206.23$193.27
Multi-Stage$30.21 - $33.05$31.60
Blended Fair Value$112.43
Current Price$17.61
Upside538.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.92%2.19%0.570.540.470.430.370.500.270.210.370.20
YoY Growth--6.54%13.76%10.93%14.07%-24.71%82.24%31.05%-43.26%86.73%-57.48%
Dividend Yield--3.91%3.32%2.43%3.16%3.34%3.78%1.94%1.41%1.41%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)388.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)214.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)77.6148.5129.10
Cash Retained (M)214.18214.18214.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-77.61-48.51-29.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)136.57165.68185.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)374.22374.22374.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.440.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$84.35$193.27$206.23
Upside / Downside378.98%997.48%1,071.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)388.06413.29440.15468.76499.23531.68547.63
Payout Ratio44.81%53.85%62.88%71.92%80.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.88222.54276.78337.14404.18478.51506.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)206.92208.88210.84
Year 2 PV (M)239.30243.86248.46
Year 3 PV (M)271.03278.81286.74
Year 4 PV (M)302.12313.74325.69
Year 5 PV (M)332.58348.64365.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,952.1810,432.8810,931.97
Equity Value (M)11,304.1311,826.8012,369.01
Shares Outstanding (M)374.22374.22374.22
Fair Value$30.21$31.60$33.05
Upside / Downside71.53%79.46%87.69%

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