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Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co., Ltd. (601686.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.54 - $8.60$6.96
Multi-Stage$12.91 - $14.21$13.55
Blended Fair Value$10.25
Current Price$6.30
Upside62.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS31.73%0.00%0.360.150.150.450.220.090.090.110.030.00
YoY Growth--135.41%-0.34%-66.21%108.47%140.00%1.33%-17.03%264.40%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--6.62%2.47%2.47%5.46%1.70%0.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)825.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)463.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)362.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)165.17103.2361.94
Cash Retained (M)362.65362.65362.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-165.17-103.23-61.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.48259.42300.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.131,399.131,399.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.470.520.55
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.54$6.96$8.60
Upside / Downside-12.02%10.44%36.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)825.84817.58809.40801.31793.30785.36808.93
Payout Ratio56.09%62.87%69.65%76.43%83.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)463.19514.01563.77612.48660.16706.83748.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)478.44483.32488.21
Year 2 PV (M)488.45498.47508.59
Year 3 PV (M)493.93509.21524.79
Year 4 PV (M)495.55516.09537.26
Year 5 PV (M)493.86519.58546.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,612.4216,425.4017,271.89
Equity Value (M)18,062.6618,952.0619,877.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,399.131,399.131,399.13
Fair Value$12.91$13.55$14.21
Upside / Downside104.92%115.01%125.50%

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