Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co., Ltd. (601601.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$61.76 - $100.95$79.26
Multi-Stage$74.01 - $81.18$77.53
Blended Fair Value$78.39
Current Price$35.12
Upside123.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.51%7.83%1.351.291.651.301.130.940.991.031.150.70
YoY Growth--4.58%-21.41%26.62%15.01%20.00%-5.05%-3.80%-10.57%64.89%9.88%
Dividend Yield--4.21%5.45%6.35%5.67%2.99%3.34%2.85%3.04%4.21%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52,350.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,649.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)48,701.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10,470.006,543.753,926.25
Cash Retained (M)48,701.0048,701.0048,701.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-10,470.00-6,543.75-3,926.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)38,231.0042,157.2544,774.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.974.384.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.354.765.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Fair Value$61.76$79.26$100.95
Upside / Downside75.85%125.69%187.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52,350.0053,809.3355,309.3356,851.1558,435.9660,064.9461,866.88
Payout Ratio6.97%23.58%40.18%56.79%73.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,649.0012,686.2622,224.5332,284.7242,888.5354,058.4457,226.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.96%8.96%8.96%
Growth Rate1.79%2.79%3.79%
Year 1 PV (M)11,529.4911,642.7611,756.03
Year 2 PV (M)18,356.3418,718.7919,084.79
Year 3 PV (M)24,234.1424,955.4325,690.90
Year 4 PV (M)29,258.2630,425.0931,626.48
Year 5 PV (M)33,515.6535,194.6736,940.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)595,046.47624,856.28655,848.98
Equity Value (M)711,940.36745,793.03780,947.50
Shares Outstanding (M)9,620.009,620.009,620.00
Fair Value$74.01$77.53$81.18
Upside / Downside110.72%120.74%131.15%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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