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Definitive Analysis

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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.04 - $24.72$17.76
Multi-Stage$13.30 - $14.57$13.92
Blended Fair Value$15.84
Current Price$8.24
Upside92.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS67.98%-3.54%0.280.200.010.020.020.020.020.030.030.35
YoY Growth--35.78%3,084.85%-68.80%-17.04%19.50%-14.10%-18.21%15.45%-92.82%-10.50%
Dividend Yield--3.70%2.82%0.12%0.35%0.65%0.72%0.54%0.62%0.55%8.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,255.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,390.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,864.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,851.091,781.931,069.16
Cash Retained (M)11,864.5411,864.5411,864.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,851.09-1,781.93-1,069.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,013.4610,082.6110,795.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,081.1417,081.1417,081.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.530.590.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Fair Value$13.04$17.76$24.72
Upside / Downside58.23%115.49%199.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,255.4414,862.5315,495.4916,155.4016,843.4117,560.7218,087.54
Payout Ratio16.77%31.42%46.06%60.71%75.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,390.894,669.437,137.709,807.7312,692.2415,804.6516,730.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.55%8.55%8.55%
Growth Rate3.26%4.26%5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)4,260.524,301.784,343.04
Year 2 PV (M)5,942.316,057.976,174.73
Year 3 PV (M)7,450.147,668.707,891.48
Year 4 PV (M)8,796.979,142.729,498.57
Year 5 PV (M)9,994.8910,488.3311,001.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)190,764.77200,182.65209,968.87
Equity Value (M)227,209.61237,842.15248,877.77
Shares Outstanding (M)17,081.1417,081.1417,081.14
Fair Value$13.30$13.92$14.57
Upside / Downside61.43%68.98%76.82%

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