Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Universal Scientific Industrial (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. (601231.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.08 - $145.00$135.89
Multi-Stage$92.50 - $101.51$96.92
Blended Fair Value$116.41
Current Price$21.87
Upside432.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.54%15.55%0.370.530.290.530.200.190.190.120.110.11
YoY Growth---29.68%82.97%-45.05%163.99%5.64%-2.16%58.86%15.87%-4.66%25.29%
Dividend Yield--2.14%3.70%1.64%4.36%1.03%1.19%1.26%0.95%0.85%1.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,618.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)686.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)931.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)323.75202.35121.41
Cash Retained (M)931.84931.84931.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-323.75-202.35-121.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)608.08729.49810.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.172,220.172,220.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.330.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.580.640.67
WACC / Discount Rate0.30%0.30%0.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$123.08$135.89$145.00
Upside / Downside462.76%521.35%563.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,618.771,723.991,836.051,955.392,082.492,217.852,284.39
Payout Ratio42.44%51.95%61.46%70.97%80.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)686.93895.581,128.461,387.821,676.131,996.072,113.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.30%0.30%0.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)884.52892.91901.29
Year 2 PV (M)1,100.761,121.721,142.89
Year 3 PV (M)1,337.031,375.421,414.52
Year 4 PV (M)1,594.851,656.191,719.27
Year 5 PV (M)1,875.821,966.422,060.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)198,575.96208,167.25218,125.63
Equity Value (M)205,368.94215,179.90225,364.09
Shares Outstanding (M)2,220.172,220.172,220.17
Fair Value$92.50$96.92$101.51
Upside / Downside322.96%343.17%364.14%

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