Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $74.03 - $203.17 | $190.40 |
| Multi-Stage | $29.46 - $32.19 | $30.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $110.60 | |
| Current Price | $15.78 | |
| Upside | 600.89% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 35.54% | 0.00% | 0.90 | 1.57 | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -42.68% | 255.47% | 6.08% | 54.03% | 37.43% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 6.01% | 11.10% | 2.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 917.86 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 766.79 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 151.08 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 183.57 | 114.73 | 68.84 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 151.08 | 151.08 | 151.08 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -183.57 | -114.73 | -68.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -32.50 | 36.34 | 82.24 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 898.45 | 898.45 | 898.45 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.04 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.82 | 0.89 | 0.94 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $74.03 | $190.40 | $203.17 |
| Upside / Downside | 369.17% | 1,106.60% | 1,187.52% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 917.86 | 977.52 | 1,041.06 | 1,108.73 | 1,180.80 | 1,257.55 | 1,295.27 |
| Payout Ratio | 83.54% | 84.83% | 86.12% | 87.42% | 88.71% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 766.79 | 829.25 | 896.61 | 969.21 | 1,047.46 | 1,131.79 | 1,198.13 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.66% | 6.66% | 6.66% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 770.14 | 777.44 | 784.74 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 773.33 | 788.06 | 802.93 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 776.36 | 798.65 | 821.36 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 779.23 | 809.20 | 840.02 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 781.95 | 819.72 | 858.93 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 22,588.39 | 23,679.42 | 24,812.20 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,469.41 | 27,672.49 | 28,920.19 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 898.45 | 898.45 | 898.45 |
| Fair Value | $29.46 | $30.80 | $32.19 |
| Upside / Downside | 86.70% | 95.19% | 103.99% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |