Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Shentong Metro Co.,Ltd. (600834.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.38 - $0.52$0.45
Multi-Stage$0.70 - $0.77$0.73
Blended Fair Value$0.59
Current Price$8.64
Upside-93.13%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-4.23%-3.36%0.090.110.080.130.140.120.100.100.090.12
YoY Growth---11.56%30.37%-36.55%-10.03%22.39%21.54%0.37%9.84%-24.96%-12.24%
Dividend Yield--1.17%1.46%0.97%1.51%1.57%1.87%1.16%1.06%0.59%0.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)35.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)15.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.134.462.67
Cash Retained (M)15.5615.5615.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.13-4.46-2.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.4311.1112.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)467.40467.40467.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-5.36%-4.36%-3.36%
Fair Value$0.38$0.45$0.52
Upside / Downside-95.57%-94.76%-93.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)35.6634.1132.6231.2029.8428.5429.40
Payout Ratio56.35%63.08%69.81%76.54%83.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.0921.5122.7723.8824.8525.6927.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.74%9.74%9.74%
Growth Rate-5.36%-4.36%-3.36%
Year 1 PV (M)19.4019.6019.81
Year 2 PV (M)18.5218.9119.31
Year 3 PV (M)17.5118.0718.64
Year 4 PV (M)16.4317.1317.86
Year 5 PV (M)15.3116.1417.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)240.54253.51267.05
Equity Value (M)327.70343.37359.67
Shares Outstanding (M)467.40467.40467.40
Fair Value$0.70$0.73$0.77
Upside / Downside-91.89%-91.50%-91.09%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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