Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Daily Digital Culture Group Co.,Ltd. (600633.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.57 - $5.26$4.38
Multi-Stage$4.97 - $5.44$5.20
Blended Fair Value$4.79
Current Price$14.49
Upside-66.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.78%1.85%0.220.100.040.100.110.080.180.150.190.20
YoY Growth--126.97%152.84%-62.42%-9.36%37.03%-55.18%18.78%-18.29%-7.63%11.67%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.85%0.31%1.25%1.48%0.80%1.72%1.12%0.95%1.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)571.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)368.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)114.3271.4542.87
Cash Retained (M)368.47368.47368.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-114.32-71.45-42.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)254.15297.02325.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.461,280.461,280.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Fair Value$3.57$4.38$5.26
Upside / Downside-75.39%-69.80%-63.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)571.60576.47581.39586.35591.35596.40614.29
Payout Ratio35.54%46.43%57.32%68.21%79.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.13267.66333.27399.98467.80536.76568.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.85%9.85%9.85%
Growth Rate-0.15%0.85%1.85%
Year 1 PV (M)241.23243.64246.06
Year 2 PV (M)270.71276.15281.66
Year 3 PV (M)292.82301.70310.77
Year 4 PV (M)308.66321.21334.14
Year 5 PV (M)319.18335.49352.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,929.165,180.975,442.97
Equity Value (M)6,361.756,659.176,968.05
Shares Outstanding (M)1,280.461,280.461,280.46
Fair Value$4.97$5.20$5.44
Upside / Downside-65.71%-64.11%-62.44%

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