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Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. (600282.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.29 - $86.56$81.12
Multi-Stage$13.51 - $14.78$14.13
Blended Fair Value$47.63
Current Price$5.25
Upside807.18%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.51%12.79%0.490.370.420.340.260.250.110.090.120.12
YoY Growth--32.55%-12.14%24.00%29.06%5.61%129.71%23.16%-26.84%0.15%-18.37%
Dividend Yield--10.66%7.90%10.84%9.42%6.81%7.95%2.56%2.02%3.29%4.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,683.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,466.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,216.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)536.73335.46201.27
Cash Retained (M)1,216.711,216.711,216.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-536.73-335.46-201.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)679.98881.251,015.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,165.526,165.526,165.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$43.29$81.12$86.56
Upside / Downside724.51%1,445.19%1,548.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,683.642,858.083,043.853,241.703,452.413,676.823,787.13
Payout Ratio54.66%61.73%68.80%75.86%82.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,466.941,764.282,094.092,459.312,863.173,309.143,503.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,643.381,658.961,674.54
Year 2 PV (M)1,816.921,851.531,886.46
Year 3 PV (M)1,987.592,044.642,102.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,155.412,238.302,323.56
Year 5 PV (M)2,320.432,432.512,548.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)73,355.3276,898.4180,577.11
Equity Value (M)83,279.0687,124.3691,113.33
Shares Outstanding (M)6,165.526,165.526,165.52
Fair Value$13.51$14.13$14.78
Upside / Downside157.28%169.16%181.48%

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