Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Anhui Quanchai Engine Co., Ltd. (600218.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.13 - $3.34$2.68
Multi-Stage$2.51 - $2.75$2.63
Blended Fair Value$2.65
Current Price$9.23
Upside-71.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS114.09%7.65%0.070.080.110.090.070.000.050.070.070.10
YoY Growth---13.12%-23.96%18.46%33.63%4,200.29%-96.51%-38.33%0.37%-27.61%197.20%
Dividend Yield--0.83%0.99%1.20%0.90%0.76%0.02%0.39%1.13%0.71%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.18
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.1011.316.79
Cash Retained (M)64.3264.3264.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.10-11.31-6.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.2253.0157.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)430.93430.93430.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Fair Value$2.13$2.68$3.34
Upside / Downside-76.95%-70.93%-63.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90.5093.1195.8098.56101.40104.33107.46
Payout Ratio28.92%41.14%53.35%65.57%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.1838.3051.1164.6378.8893.9099.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate1.89%2.89%3.89%
Year 1 PV (M)34.5134.8435.18
Year 2 PV (M)41.4842.2943.12
Year 3 PV (M)47.2448.6550.08
Year 4 PV (M)51.9454.0156.14
Year 5 PV (M)55.7058.4961.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)850.79893.37937.64
Equity Value (M)1,081.661,131.651,183.55
Shares Outstanding (M)430.93430.93430.93
Fair Value$2.51$2.63$2.75
Upside / Downside-72.81%-71.55%-70.24%

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