Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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Jinyu Bio-technology Co., Ltd. (600201.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.66 - $0.95$0.80
Multi-Stage$0.96 - $1.05$1.01
Blended Fair Value$0.91
Current Price$9.64
Upside-90.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-25.39%0.91%0.080.060.110.120.060.350.250.280.210.08
YoY Growth--33.33%-44.40%-10.69%101.12%-82.63%43.07%-11.89%34.42%169.09%3.82%
Dividend Yield--1.14%0.69%0.93%1.06%0.32%1.66%1.38%1.34%1.12%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)100.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.1512.597.56
Cash Retained (M)67.4667.4667.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.15-12.59-7.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)47.3054.8659.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,089.301,089.301,089.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Fair Value$0.66$0.80$0.95
Upside / Downside-93.15%-91.68%-90.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)100.76100.66100.57100.48100.39100.30103.30
Payout Ratio33.05%44.44%55.83%67.22%78.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.3044.7456.1567.5478.9290.2795.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.09%-0.09%0.91%
Year 1 PV (M)40.2740.6841.08
Year 2 PV (M)45.4946.4247.35
Year 3 PV (M)49.2650.7752.31
Year 4 PV (M)51.8053.9356.12
Year 5 PV (M)53.3356.0958.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)808.29849.99893.39
Equity Value (M)1,048.451,097.861,149.20
Shares Outstanding (M)1,089.301,089.301,089.30
Fair Value$0.96$1.01$1.05
Upside / Downside-90.02%-89.54%-89.06%

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