Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kingfa Sci. & Tech. Co., Ltd. (600143.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.76 - $92.37$86.56
Multi-Stage$14.11 - $15.42$14.75
Blended Fair Value$50.66
Current Price$20.99
Upside141.34%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.60%11.28%0.440.700.530.800.310.290.210.200.170.14
YoY Growth---36.70%30.96%-33.61%157.18%6.72%42.40%0.18%22.45%18.77%-7.04%
Dividend Yield--4.00%9.75%5.73%8.24%1.44%3.69%3.64%3.42%2.16%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,206.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,035.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.02
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)241.24150.7790.46
Cash Retained (M)171.02171.02171.02
(-) Cash Required (M)-241.24-150.77-90.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)-70.2220.2580.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,597.032,597.032,597.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.030.010.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.76$86.56$92.37
Upside / Downside89.43%312.39%340.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,206.181,284.581,368.081,457.001,551.711,652.571,702.15
Payout Ratio85.82%86.66%87.49%88.33%89.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,035.161,113.181,196.971,286.951,383.571,487.311,574.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,035.561,045.381,055.20
Year 2 PV (M)1,035.871,055.601,075.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,036.081,065.831,096.13
Year 4 PV (M)1,036.201,076.051,117.04
Year 5 PV (M)1,036.231,086.281,138.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)31,468.9932,988.9534,567.09
Equity Value (M)36,648.9438,318.1040,049.22
Shares Outstanding (M)2,597.032,597.032,597.03
Fair Value$14.11$14.75$15.42
Upside / Downside-32.77%-29.71%-26.53%

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