Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co., Ltd. (600141.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$137.50 - $276.84$259.44
Multi-Stage$43.92 - $48.01$45.93
Blended Fair Value$152.68
Current Price$28.17
Upside442.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.12%4.37%0.851.270.860.680.590.860.660.630.580.66
YoY Growth---32.63%47.60%25.94%15.44%-31.23%31.10%4.60%7.74%-12.12%18.82%
Dividend Yield--3.85%6.67%2.82%2.05%4.31%8.43%5.74%4.97%4.78%6.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,605.45
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,346.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)258.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)321.09200.68120.41
Cash Retained (M)258.52258.52258.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-321.09-200.68-120.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)-62.5757.84138.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,153.331,153.331,153.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.050.12
LTM Dividend per Share1.171.171.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.050.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.111.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$137.50$259.44$276.84
Upside / Downside388.11%820.97%882.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,605.451,709.801,820.941,939.302,065.352,199.602,265.59
Payout Ratio83.90%85.12%86.34%87.56%88.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,346.931,455.351,572.171,698.031,833.611,979.642,095.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,355.551,368.391,381.24
Year 2 PV (M)1,363.941,389.921,416.14
Year 3 PV (M)1,372.101,411.491,451.63
Year 4 PV (M)1,380.051,433.131,487.72
Year 5 PV (M)1,387.791,454.821,524.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)43,796.5345,911.9248,108.27
Equity Value (M)50,655.9652,969.6755,369.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,153.331,153.331,153.33
Fair Value$43.92$45.93$48.01
Upside / Downside55.92%63.04%70.42%

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