Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.,Ltd (600059.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Wineries & DistilleriesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.16 - $3.36$2.71
Multi-Stage$2.59 - $2.83$2.71
Blended Fair Value$2.71
Current Price$9.56
Upside-71.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.56%4.76%0.140.080.080.050.090.090.090.090.000.07
YoY Growth--75.00%-0.01%59.94%-43.63%0.05%-0.07%-0.03%7,547.62%-98.36%-19.30%
Dividend Yield--1.63%0.85%0.74%0.50%0.75%1.18%1.04%1.03%0.01%0.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)205.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)132.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)41.1625.7215.43
Cash Retained (M)132.87132.87132.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-41.16-25.72-15.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.71107.15117.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.16944.16944.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Fair Value$2.16$2.71$3.36
Upside / Downside-77.45%-71.65%-64.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)205.79211.48217.33223.34229.52235.87242.94
Payout Ratio35.44%46.35%57.26%68.17%79.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.9298.02124.45152.26181.52212.28224.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate1.77%2.77%3.77%
Year 1 PV (M)88.2489.1189.98
Year 2 PV (M)100.86102.86104.87
Year 3 PV (M)111.10114.41117.78
Year 4 PV (M)119.24124.00128.90
Year 5 PV (M)125.54131.83138.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,899.601,994.782,093.74
Equity Value (M)2,444.592,556.992,673.64
Shares Outstanding (M)944.16944.16944.16
Fair Value$2.59$2.71$2.83
Upside / Downside-72.92%-71.67%-70.38%

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