Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $3.65 - $5.55 | $4.54 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.34 - $10.28 | $9.80 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.17 | |
| Current Price | $4.23 | |
| Upside | 69.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -5.39% | -0.67% | 0.61 | 0.54 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.70 | 0.81 | 1.01 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.77 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 13.17% | -15.72% | -1.78% | -6.31% | -13.64% | -19.51% | 16.98% | -1.20% | 12.56% | 17.84% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 13.97% | 14.52% | 20.52% | 19.94% | 20.78% | 21.50% | 15.43% | 18.13% | 17.75% | 14.39% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,018.53 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 801.03 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 217.50 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 203.71 | 127.32 | 76.39 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 217.50 | 217.50 | 217.50 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -203.71 | -127.32 | -76.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 13.80 | 90.19 | 141.11 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,450.42 | 2,450.42 | 2,450.42 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.33 | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.21% | 6.21% | 6.21% |
| Growth Rate | -2.67% | -1.67% | -0.67% |
| Fair Value | $3.65 | $4.54 | $5.55 |
| Upside / Downside | -13.79% | 7.35% | 31.31% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,018.53 | 1,001.57 | 984.89 | 968.49 | 952.37 | 936.51 | 964.60 |
| Payout Ratio | 78.65% | 80.92% | 83.19% | 85.46% | 87.73% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 801.03 | 810.44 | 819.31 | 827.66 | 835.50 | 842.86 | 892.26 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.21% | 6.21% | 6.21% |
| Growth Rate | -2.67% | -1.67% | -0.67% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 755.29 | 763.04 | 770.80 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 711.59 | 726.29 | 741.14 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 669.93 | 690.79 | 712.08 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 630.26 | 656.56 | 683.68 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 592.54 | 623.61 | 655.97 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 19,536.19 | 20,560.58 | 21,627.50 |
| Equity Value (M) | 22,895.79 | 24,020.87 | 25,191.16 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,450.42 | 2,450.42 | 2,450.42 |
| Fair Value | $9.34 | $9.80 | $10.28 |
| Upside / Downside | 120.89% | 131.74% | 143.03% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LZOEX | Lazard Emerging Markets Equity Portfolio | 0.09% | $0.02 | 36.87% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 0.09% | $0.39 | 5.78% |
| AAMI | Acadian Asset Management | 0.08% | $0.04 | 1.59% |
| PDLB | Ponce Financial Group, Inc. | 0.08% | $0.01 | 1.31% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 0.08% | $0.15 | 5.48% |
| 0J46.L | HEICO Corporation | 0.07% | $0.23 | 4.98% |
| 0JYM.L | Markel Corporation | 0.07% | $1.41 | 0.87% |
| CHCI | Comstock Holding Companies, Inc. | 0.06% | $0.01 | 0.56% |
| MTVC | Motive Capital Corp II | 0.06% | $0.01 | 2.21% |
| ENJ | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.0% Series due December 1, 2052 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| ENO | Entergy New Orleans, LLC First Mortgage Bonds, 5.50% Series due April 1, 2066 | 0.05% | $0.01 | 0.31% |
| AJRD | Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. | 0.04% | $0.02 | 2.70% |
| ERES | East Resources Acquisition Company | 0.04% | $0.00 | 1.55% |
| NBN | Northeast Bank | 0.04% | $0.04 | 0.38% |
| ARHS | Arhaus, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.61% |
| BSIG | BrightSphere Investment Group Inc. | 0.03% | $0.01 | 0.34% |
| EWCZ | European Wax Center, Inc. | 0.03% | $0.00 | 0.37% |
| WIRE | Encore Wire Corporation | 0.03% | $0.08 | 0.42% |
| ACFN | Acorn Energy, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.09% |
| ACMR | ACM Research, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.01 | 0.62% |
| CFB | CrossFirst Bankshares, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.21% |
| FDSB | Fifth District Savings Bank | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.35% |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | 0.02% | $0.00 | 0.75% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | 0.02% | $0.04 | 0.98% |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.04 | 0.23% |
| BSX-PA | Boston Scientific Corporation | 0.01% | $0.02 | 0.82% |
| FIGR | Figure Technology Solutions, Inc. Class A Common Stock | 0.01% | $0.00 | 2.22% |
| GNRC | Generac Holdings Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.18% |
| LAUR | Laureate Education, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.22% |
| PLNT | Planet Fitness, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.01 | 0.57% |
| SUM | Summit Materials, Inc. | 0.01% | $0.00 | 0.32% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 6.20% |
| BJRI | BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.01% |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| INFA | Informatica Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.10% |
| MMMB | MamaMancini's Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| PMO | Putnam Municipal Opportunities Trust | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.05% |
| SENEA | Seneca Foods Corporation | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.04% |
| SLCA | U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.02% |
| UNIT | Uniti Group Inc. | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% |