Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chugoku Marine Paints, Ltd. (4617.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29,317.40 - $45,343.61$42,493.60
Multi-Stage$7,464.86 - $8,171.99$7,811.92
Blended Fair Value$25,152.76
Current Price$2,708.00
Upside828.83%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%17.33%85.8451.9035.7236.6139.6341.1546.3325.0722.5921.36
YoY Growth--65.41%45.29%-2.42%-7.63%-3.68%-11.19%84.79%10.98%5.76%23.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%2.59%2.95%4.16%4.62%5.14%4.85%2.27%2.61%3.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,304.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,795.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,509.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,260.801,413.00847.80
Cash Retained (M)6,509.006,509.006,509.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,260.80-1,413.00-847.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,248.205,096.005,661.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.5849.5849.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share85.69102.79114.19
LTM Dividend per Share96.7196.7196.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share85.69102.79114.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend182.40199.50210.90
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$29,317.40$42,493.60$45,343.61
Upside / Downside982.62%1,469.19%1,574.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,304.0012,038.7612,821.2813,654.6614,542.2215,487.4615,952.08
Payout Ratio42.42%51.93%61.45%70.97%80.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,795.006,252.327,878.839,690.3711,704.1213,938.7114,755.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,834.425,889.725,945.03
Year 2 PV (M)6,860.806,991.487,123.40
Year 3 PV (M)7,874.278,100.318,330.64
Year 4 PV (M)8,874.959,216.259,567.31
Year 5 PV (M)9,862.9410,339.3310,833.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)330,791.41346,768.76363,357.60
Equity Value (M)370,098.80387,305.86405,157.91
Shares Outstanding (M)49.5849.5849.58
Fair Value$7,464.86$7,811.92$8,171.99
Upside / Downside175.66%188.48%201.77%

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