Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Towa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (4553.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70,791.61 - $83,404.51$78,162.24
Multi-Stage$19,314.91 - $21,177.28$20,228.82
Blended Fair Value$49,195.53
Current Price$2,952.00
Upside1,566.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.40%8.76%59.9959.9762.9748.9844.0041.9931.6731.6331.6535.65
YoY Growth--0.03%-4.77%28.58%11.31%4.79%32.58%0.13%-0.06%-11.23%37.65%
Dividend Yield--2.01%2.03%3.56%1.99%1.63%2.11%1.12%1.60%1.81%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,645.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,497.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,148.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,129.002,580.631,548.38
Cash Retained (M)17,148.0017,148.0017,148.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,129.00-2,580.63-1,548.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,019.0014,567.3815,599.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.2349.2349.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share264.47295.92316.89
LTM Dividend per Share71.0471.0471.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share264.47295.92316.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend335.51366.96387.93
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70,791.61$78,162.24$83,404.51
Upside / Downside2,298.09%2,547.77%2,725.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,645.0021,986.9323,416.0824,938.1226,559.1028,285.4429,134.00
Payout Ratio16.94%31.55%46.16%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,497.006,937.0910,809.6215,156.2620,022.3025,456.9026,948.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,529.596,591.486,653.37
Year 2 PV (M)9,576.949,759.369,943.49
Year 3 PV (M)12,639.1313,001.9513,371.66
Year 4 PV (M)15,716.1916,320.5916,942.26
Year 5 PV (M)18,808.1919,716.6320,659.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)887,549.84930,418.83974,928.52
Equity Value (M)950,819.89995,808.851,042,499.14
Shares Outstanding (M)49.2349.2349.23
Fair Value$19,314.91$20,228.82$21,177.28
Upside / Downside554.30%585.26%617.39%

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