Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Fuso Chemical Co.,Ltd. (4368.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,077.58 - $16,652.17$10,414.09
Multi-Stage$5,010.66 - $5,473.51$5,237.89
Blended Fair Value$7,825.99
Current Price$3,870.00
Upside102.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.97%20.28%67.9765.9659.9750.1746.3346.3346.3247.3343.2817.87
YoY Growth--3.05%9.98%19.54%8.29%0.00%0.02%-2.14%9.36%142.23%66.63%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.63%1.33%1.41%1.13%1.18%2.12%1.66%1.19%1.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,843.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,571.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,271.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,368.741,480.46888.28
Cash Retained (M)9,271.789,271.789,271.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,368.74-1,480.46-888.28
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,903.037,791.318,383.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.2635.2635.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share195.80220.99237.79
LTM Dividend per Share72.9572.9572.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share195.80220.99237.79
(=) Adjusted Dividend268.75293.94310.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,077.58$10,414.09$16,652.17
Upside / Downside82.88%169.10%330.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,843.7112,613.5513,433.4414,306.6115,236.5416,226.9116,713.72
Payout Ratio21.72%35.37%49.03%62.69%76.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,571.944,461.736,586.338,968.2811,632.0514,604.2215,460.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.51%9.51%9.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4,036.164,074.424,112.67
Year 2 PV (M)5,389.815,492.475,596.10
Year 3 PV (M)6,639.026,829.607,023.79
Year 4 PV (M)7,789.618,089.188,397.30
Year 5 PV (M)8,847.149,274.469,718.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)143,954.18150,907.22158,126.37
Equity Value (M)176,655.91184,667.34192,974.37
Shares Outstanding (M)35.2635.2635.26
Fair Value$5,010.66$5,237.89$5,473.51
Upside / Downside29.47%35.35%41.43%

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