Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sumitomo Bakelite Company Limited (4203.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27,900.93 - $43,152.82$40,440.51
Multi-Stage$7,108.66 - $7,781.80$7,439.04
Blended Fair Value$23,939.77
Current Price$4,169.00
Upside474.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.32%12.64%87.0872.0862.1149.1631.0642.7034.9428.4825.8826.49
YoY Growth--20.81%16.04%26.33%58.29%-27.25%22.19%22.71%10.03%-2.28%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.09%1.54%2.08%2.42%1.27%2.83%1.79%1.07%1.31%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19,728.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,574.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,154.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,945.602,466.001,479.60
Cash Retained (M)11,154.0011,154.0011,154.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,945.60-2,466.00-1,479.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,208.408,688.009,674.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)90.9290.9290.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.2895.56106.41
LTM Dividend per Share94.3094.3094.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.2895.56106.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend173.59189.86200.71
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$27,900.93$40,440.51$43,152.82
Upside / Downside569.25%870.03%935.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19,728.0021,010.3222,375.9923,830.4325,379.4127,029.0727,839.94
Payout Ratio43.46%52.77%62.08%71.38%80.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,574.0011,086.9113,890.2617,011.2220,479.2124,326.1625,751.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)10,345.8710,443.9410,542.00
Year 2 PV (M)12,095.5112,325.8912,558.45
Year 3 PV (M)13,823.1114,219.9214,624.25
Year 4 PV (M)15,528.8816,126.0816,740.34
Year 5 PV (M)17,213.0318,044.4318,907.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)577,304.76605,188.79634,140.02
Equity Value (M)646,311.16676,349.05707,512.71
Shares Outstanding (M)90.9290.9290.92
Fair Value$7,108.66$7,439.04$7,781.80
Upside / Downside70.51%78.44%86.66%

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