Definitive Analysis
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Tosoh Corporation (4042.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,986.28 - $25,003.49$10,389.13
Multi-Stage$3,775.99 - $4,131.75$3,950.58
Blended Fair Value$7,169.85
Current Price$2,189.50
Upside227.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.71%20.22%95.0480.0189.9761.9856.5757.1561.2258.1229.5523.68
YoY Growth--18.79%-11.06%45.15%9.57%-1.02%-6.66%5.34%96.67%24.82%57.07%
Dividend Yield--4.50%3.81%5.30%3.68%2.95%3.89%3.94%3.38%1.28%2.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)40,439.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31,911.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,528.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8,087.805,054.883,032.93
Cash Retained (M)8,528.008,528.008,528.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-8,087.80-5,054.88-3,032.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)440.203,473.135,495.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
LTM Dividend per Share100.40100.40100.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.3810.9317.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend101.78111.33117.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Fair Value$4,986.28$10,389.13$25,003.49
Upside / Downside127.74%374.50%1,041.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)40,439.0042,553.6644,778.9147,120.5249,584.5752,177.4853,742.81
Payout Ratio78.91%81.13%83.35%85.56%87.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31,911.0034,523.4337,321.8240,318.4743,526.4746,959.7349,712.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate4.23%5.23%6.23%
Year 1 PV (M)32,151.5232,459.9932,768.46
Year 2 PV (M)32,369.6632,993.7633,623.82
Year 3 PV (M)32,566.2033,512.5634,477.08
Year 4 PV (M)32,741.9234,016.6535,328.25
Year 5 PV (M)32,897.5834,506.2936,177.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,037,452.071,088,184.031,140,881.52
Equity Value (M)1,200,178.941,255,673.291,313,256.47
Shares Outstanding (M)317.85317.85317.85
Fair Value$3,775.99$3,950.58$4,131.75
Upside / Downside72.46%80.43%88.71%

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