Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Voneseals Technology (Shanghai) Inc. (301161.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.04 - $5.73$4.87
Multi-Stage$6.42 - $7.03$6.72
Blended Fair Value$5.79
Current Price$38.03
Upside-84.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-0.33%0.00%0.440.170.040.060.200.440.090.010.000.00
YoY Growth--154.63%343.52%-33.24%-70.34%-56.01%393.06%1,549.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.99%0.97%0.16%0.21%0.70%1.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.529.075.44
Cash Retained (M)33.2433.2433.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.52-9.07-5.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.7224.1727.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.04$4.87$5.73
Upside / Downside-89.38%-87.19%-84.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.5971.8671.1470.4369.7369.0371.10
Payout Ratio54.21%61.36%68.52%75.68%82.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3544.1048.7553.3057.7662.1365.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.86%9.86%9.86%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)39.7340.1440.54
Year 2 PV (M)39.5840.3941.21
Year 3 PV (M)38.9940.2041.43
Year 4 PV (M)38.0739.6541.28
Year 5 PV (M)36.9038.8240.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)569.31598.96629.82
Equity Value (M)762.59798.16835.11
Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
Fair Value$6.42$6.72$7.03
Upside / Downside-83.13%-82.34%-81.52%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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