Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Green Precision Components Co., Ltd (300968.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.43 - $0.62$0.52
Multi-Stage$0.73 - $0.79$0.76
Blended Fair Value$0.64
Current Price$15.62
Upside-95.89%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%26.99%0.050.210.210.000.000.000.000.000.010.04
YoY Growth---75.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-72.60%-74.07%814.61%
Dividend Yield--0.31%2.08%2.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)25.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)4.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.043.151.89
Cash Retained (M)4.514.514.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.04-3.15-1.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)-0.531.362.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)388.46388.46388.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.43$0.52$0.62
Upside / Downside-97.22%-96.64%-96.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)25.1824.9224.6724.4324.1823.9424.66
Payout Ratio82.10%83.68%85.26%86.84%88.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.6720.8621.0421.2121.3821.5522.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)18.8219.0119.20
Year 2 PV (M)17.1317.4817.84
Year 3 PV (M)15.5916.0716.56
Year 4 PV (M)14.1814.7715.37
Year 5 PV (M)12.8913.5614.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)203.70214.31225.35
Equity Value (M)282.31295.20308.59
Shares Outstanding (M)388.46388.46388.46
Fair Value$0.73$0.76$0.79
Upside / Downside-95.35%-95.13%-94.91%

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